European Labour Market Barometer: First rise since June 2021
After a comparatively stark decline in December 2021, the European Labour Market Barometer rose again slightly for the first time since June 2021. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) climbs by 0.6 points in January compared with December to 101.8 points.
“There is a brighter outlook on the European labour market as the year begins, but the pandemic still poses a risk,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. It is primarily in Central Europe that the barometer is recovering, whereas the values in Eastern Europe are rather weak at the moment.
The European Labour Market Barometer’s two sub-indicators are both rising. The sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures increases by 0.8 points compared with December to 100.6 points. The indicator therefore lies above the middle mark of 100 points and signals a slight decrease in unemployment. The sub-indicator for seasonally adjusted employment growth rises by 0.4 points to 102.9 points. The outlook for employment has therefore improved and is still good. “The European economy might be able to get out of the slump it has been in since the autumn,” says Weber.
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components „unemployment“ and „employment“ constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.