European Labour Market Barometer: at a high level despite dampers
The European Labour Market Barometer fell by 0.4 points to 104.8 points in July. That means the leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) is still at a high level, however, and has achieved the second-highest score in its existence.
“The European public employment services see that the upswing of the labour markets in Europe is still continuing. But the concern regarding the economic effects of a new COVID wave is rising,” reports Enzo Weber, head of the IAB forecast division “Forecast and Macroeconomic Analysis”. The leading indicator values for the labour markets in all of the participating countries are looking positive, reaching the 100-point mark or higher. Compared to June, however, the values in almost all countries fell or stagnated. Only the Czech Republic, Austria and Belgium-Flanders saw a slight rise.
The components for the growth of both unemployment and employment appear slightly muted. The sub-indicator for the future development of unemployment figures hardly fell at all in July, dropping by 0.1 point to 105.6 points. It therefore exceeds the sub-indicator for employment growth, which fell more significantly by 0.8 points to 104.0 points.
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components „unemployment“ and „employment“ constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.